Availability bias: memorable is not the same as common
You hear three striking stories about lost parcels. Soon, it feels as if parcels go missing all the time.
The stories are easy to remember. The many deliveries that arrived safely never became stories.
What does it mean?
The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut. We judge how common something is by how easily examples come to mind.
A heuristic is a quick way to make a judgement. This one can help, but recent, vivid or repeated stories may pull it off course.
An everyday example
A group chat has several posts about stolen bicycles. That could reflect a rise in theft.
It could also mean more people joined the chat, or that several posts describe the same theft. Counting posts is not the same as counting stolen bikes.
A few memorable complaints are only part of a delivery record. Ask for the total before judging the rate.
Try it yourself
A shop gets ten complaints about damaged parcels. Is that a lot?
First imagine it sent twenty parcels. Now imagine it sent twenty thousand. What important number changed?
Think it through
The total number of parcels changed. Ten out of twenty is half. Ten out of twenty thousand is a much smaller share.
You would also need to check whether all damage was reported. A complaint count may leave some problems out.
One important point
A rare problem can still be serious. Checking how often it happens does not mean ignoring people who were hurt or let down.
It helps us separate two questions: how serious is this, and how common is it? A strong story cannot answer both by itself.
A question to keep
Out of how many, over how long?
How could this work in a game?
A future Thinky round could show a few memorable reports, then the full record. You would compare your first guess with the wider picture.
A future Willowwind harbour quest could ask you to check delivery logs after hearing a worrying story about a ship.
These are ideas for future activities. They are not features you can play now.
Thinky's current free beta is a proof of concept: an early test of the idea. It covers one topic, survivorship bias. That means missing part of the picture by looking only at the examples that made it through.
Willowwind Island is a future 2D adventure concept. It would offer longer stories, exploration and choices. Thinky is being explored as a set of short, brain-training-style challenges.
Project Empathy comes first. Afterwards, we plan to seek help from professional game developers. There is no launch date yet.
Follow the games as they develop
Visit our games page to try the current Thinky prototype. You can also sign up there for occasional project news, testing and launch updates. You can unsubscribe at any time.
Sources and further reading
This series was inspired by the School of Thought topic guides. The examples, game ideas and illustrations here are our own.
