The anecdotal fallacy: what can one experience tell us?
‘My washing machine lasted twenty years, so that brand never breaks.’
The machine may really have lasted that long. But one machine cannot show that every machine from that brand will do the same.
What does it mean?
An anecdote is a story about an experience. The anecdotal fallacy happens when one story is treated as enough to settle a much wider claim.
The story does not have to be false. The problem is asking it to prove more than it can.
An everyday example
Your friend says their bus arrived late yesterday. That tells you about one journey.
To find out whether the bus is usually late, you need records from many journeys. You should also check different days and times.
One damaged parcel is evidence about that parcel. A claim about most parcels needs a wider record.
Try it yourself
You see a clear photograph of one damaged parcel. Which claim could it help support?
‘This parcel arrived damaged.’
‘Most parcels from this shop arrive damaged.’
Think it through
It could help support the first claim, along with details about when and where the photo was taken.
The second claim needs a much wider record. You need to know how many parcels arrived, how many were damaged and how the damage was counted.
One important point
People's experiences matter. A witness can give important evidence about something they saw. One case can also reveal a problem worth checking.
Do not use ‘that's just a story’ to brush someone aside. Instead, ask which question their account helps answer, and what else you need to know.
A question to keep
Does this tell me what happened once, or how often it happens?
How could this work in a game?
A future Thinky round could give you one piece of evidence. You would choose which claims it supports and which need more checking.
A future Willowwind workshop quest could start with one broken tool. You would record what happened, then check other tools before judging the whole batch.
These are ideas for future activities. They are not features you can play now.
Thinky's current free beta is a proof of concept: an early test of the idea. It covers one topic, survivorship bias. That means missing part of the picture by looking only at the examples that made it through.
Willowwind Island is a future 2D adventure concept. It would offer longer stories, exploration and choices. Thinky is being explored as a set of short, brain-training-style challenges.
Project Empathy comes first. Afterwards, we plan to seek help from professional game developers. There is no launch date yet.
Follow the games as they develop
Visit our games page to try the current Thinky prototype. You can also sign up there for occasional project news, testing and launch updates. You can unsubscribe at any time.
Sources and further reading
This series was inspired by the School of Thought topic guides. The examples, game ideas and illustrations here are our own.
