Sunk cost fallacy: when is it sensible to stop?
You have spent two hours fixing a broken toy. It still will not work. You could try a different repair, but you think, ‘I cannot stop now. I have spent too long on this.’
Those two hours are already gone. Spending more time cannot bring them back.
What does it mean?
A sunk cost is time, effort or money already spent that you cannot get back.
The sunk cost fallacy happens when that past cost becomes the reason to carry on, even if the next step is no longer worth it.
An everyday example
A reading group is halfway through a book nobody enjoys. Someone says they must finish because they have already read half.
Finishing may still have a good reason. Perhaps they want to know the ending. But pages already read do not show whether the next pages are worth their time.
Past effort cannot be recovered. The next decision should include the costs and benefits still ahead.
Try it yourself
Imagine you are deciding only about the next hour. You cannot change the hours already spent.
What would carrying on achieve? What would it cost from now on? What could you do instead?
Think it through
Compare the choices you still have. You might carry on because one small repair is likely to work. You might stop because another option is better.
The point is to choose based on what happens next, rather than to make past effort feel worthwhile.
One important point
Some costs of stopping are still ahead of you. You might need to return borrowed tools or keep a promise. Those things belong in the decision.
Learning from past effort also has value. Stopping a project does not erase what you learned.
A question to keep
Is the next step worth taking?
How could this work in a game?
A future Thinky round could ask you to judge a project's next step before revealing how much effort has already gone into it.
A future Willowwind quest could offer two ways to repair a path. You would compare the work still needed, even after starting one route.
These are ideas for future activities. They are not features you can play now.
Thinky's current free beta is a proof of concept: an early test of the idea. It covers one topic, survivorship bias. That means missing part of the picture by looking only at the examples that made it through.
Willowwind Island is a future 2D adventure concept. It would offer longer stories, exploration and choices. Thinky is being explored as a set of short, brain-training-style challenges.
Project Empathy comes first. Afterwards, we plan to seek help from professional game developers. There is no launch date yet.
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Visit our games page to try the current Thinky prototype. You can also sign up there for occasional project news, testing and launch updates. You can unsubscribe at any time.
Sources and further reading
This series was inspired by the School of Thought topic guides. The examples, game ideas and illustrations here are our own.
